GBP: long-term outlook
Technically, the GBP hasn’t moved much from the zone it has been in since 2018. Against the USD, the British pound has been in a zig-zag-shaped larger trend for the last 1.5 years, capped by 1.3340 and supported by 1.2070. Currently, it is in the middle of that channel experiencing an increasing bearish gravity. EUR/GBP, on the other hand, looks more stable and concentrated in a larger channel capped by 0.9050 and supported by 0.8660 for the last 3 years. Disturbances in the Eurozone are the main factor holding this currency from lifting upwards. The GBP definitely has a tough year ahead, hence the downward forces pressing on the GBP/USD and the upward forces pushing the EUR/GBP will be constantly testing further limits in the respective directions.
Fundamentally, the latest reports say that the UK economy shrank 20% during April bringing it back to 2002 state and seeing a plunge in the output of 11%. Altogether, that makes observers expect full recovery to pre-virus state not earlier than in 2022. From a human point of view, that’s a hard pill to swallow. Form a trader’s point of view, that gives clarity to the fundamental background you operate in. Set your farthest targets accordingly.
