Top events not to skip in the fourth quarter
With tonnes of news coming out these months it's too easy to skip some of them, especially if they are not listed in the economic calendar. Let's have a look at the most important ones and check how they can influence the currencies.
12-14 October – Indonesia - Annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group
This meeting is of high importance to follow because of the trade war escalation between the US and China. The policymakers of the organizations are uncertain about an economic impact of these tensions both long-term and short-term. Rhee Chang-Yong, head of the IMF's Asia-Pacific department noted, that the main risks for the global economy lie not only in the trade war but also in high oil prices and the US Federal Reserve interest rates hike.
Impact – all currencies
17-18 October – Brexit summit
The EU will discuss the possible solution for the Brexit deal. The outcome may seem close, although there are still uncertainties on the Irish border the sides need to solve.
Impact – the GBP
24-25 October - Canada to host a multilateral summit on reforming the World Trade Organization.
According to the latest news, Canada did not include the United States in the list of participants of the reformation of Word Trade Organization (WTO). The reason for it is that the US doesn't share the views on global trade with the organization. However, Trump said leaving the WTO is not a problem for the country. These uncertainties can fuel up the global economy and have an effect on currencies as well.
Impact – all currencies
25 October - European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.
The rate hike from the European Central Bank is not expected until September 2019, however, the comments of Mario Draghi could affect the euro.
Impact – the EUR
25 October - Turkish Central Bank monetary policy meeting.
Extremely high levels of inflation in Turkey (24.52% in September) and the sharp fall of Turkish lira warns the market. Analysts say to deal with inflation the Turkish central bank needs to increase the interest rates by more than 4%. However, as it mentioned here. The big rate hike can lose its significance at some point.
Impact –the TRY
28 October – the second round of the presidential elections in Brazil.
For now, leftist Jair Bolsonario is leading, followed by the right-leaning Jair Bolsonario. It seems like the BRL is satisfied with the choice. For more thoughts on the outcome of the elections and how it can influence the BRL, read the article here
Impact – the BRL
6 November – the USA – mid-term elections
On the one hand, Trump's negative comments about the Fed's monetary policy bring uncertainties to the mid-term elections and how it affects the USD. On the other hand, imposing tariffs on Chinese imports makes Trump and his administration look more confident as it was the part of his election program.
Impact – the USD
12-18 November – Papua New Guinea – APEC summit
Possible meeting of the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison with Chinese president Xi. This is the key event for the AUD as it is affected by the US-China trade war as well.
Impact – the AUD, the USD
30 November – 1 December - G-20 leaders’ summit in Argentina.
This summit intrigues as well. Chinese president Xi and the US president Donald Trump are anticipated to meet during this summit. This might not lead to the end of the trade war, although it is possible for the leaders to find a compromise on the situation.
Impact – all currencies
1 December - Inauguration of new Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
The new United States-Mexico-Canada agreement (USMCA) and the election of the new president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador made the Mexican peso one of the strongest currencies among the emerging economies.
Impact – the MXN
These are the main, but not all events which will have the impact on the currency market. To be up-to-date with the current market situation, we highly recommend you to follow our daily news releases.