2019-11-11 • Updated
ECB Governor Mario Draghi made a scheduled speech earlier today. Overall, his comments were dovish. It seems that the central bank officials are starting to talk down markets’ taper expectations. The CB head Draghi said that there is no need to deviate from the present wording of bank’s monetary policy stance.
Ultra-loose ECB measures proved to be effective. The general outlook for the euro area economies is gradually improving. The unemployment rate did decrease in the past years, but it is still unclear how quickly lower jobless figures feed into wages. The inflation rate is still well below the coveted 2%; there is scant evidence that it is steady enough (we saw inflation figures hitting ECB target in February; in March, we saw them slowing dramatically driven by lower energy prices), thus, a substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed. So, according to Mario Draghi, it is too early to snap into the reassessment of the current monetary policy stance; the ECB policymakers will wait for more evidence before leaving the path of their current ultra-loose monetary policy.
EUR/USD skipped some points on Mario Draghi’s dovishness. Going ahead the euro will probably stay under some pressure in light of the release of ECB monetary policy meeting accounts. At the present moment, the pair is still going through its consolidation phase – it is trading around 1.0690. The immediate resistances can be found at 1.0730 (100-H4 MA) and 1.0770 (23.6% Fibo level traced from this year low). On the flip side, there are several supports located at 1.0655 (200-H4 MA) and 1.0620 (50% Fibo retracement level). They are likely tested if the wording of the minutes is extremely dovish.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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