2019-11-11 • Updated
Trade idea
SELL 1.7045; TP1 1.6980; TP2 1.6855; SL 1.7070
The British pound continues its broad decline. No matter what the economic figures from the UK look like, the GBP is under the heavy weight of Brexit. Cross-party Brexit talks collapsed, more and more people talk about the likely resignation of the Prime Minister Theresa May and the increasing risk of a no-deal Brexit. The European Parliamentary Election may hurt the sterling even more if the Conservative party’s result is bad. The dismal fundamentals can make the GBP decline without significant pullbacks.
The Canadian dollar, on the other hand, is supported by higher oil prices after the OPEC signaled that it will likely maintain production cuts.
Last week we recommended selling GBP/CAD and the pair has moved below our target of 0.7200. The pair still isn’t oversold, so the further decline is possible. GBP/CAD is currently trading around the 100-week MA at 1.7111. The close below 1.7147 (200-day MA) on Friday is a bearish sign. The 61.8% Fibo provides some support at 1.7050. The fall below it will open the way down to 1.6855 (78.6% Fibo). If there’s a pullback to the upside, the pair will meet strong resistance at 1.7340 and 1.7475.
During the Asian session on Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair rebounded after two days of losses, reaching around 1.3590. This uptick is fueled by a stronger US dollar and lower crude oil prices, which put pressure on the Canadian dollar. The decline in Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to approximately $80.70 is attributed to...
Canadian retail sales showed a slight rebound in February, rising by 0.1% after a 0.3% drop in January. However, this failed to fully offset the steeper decline earlier in the year, suggesting a weakening momentum in consumer spending. The increase in February was driven by gains in sectors such as sporting goods, hobby retailers, and building materials. Despite the...
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is under pressure due to concerns about the country's economic growth, exacerbated by bearish technical indicators and the US Dollar's strength. Recent data showing negative growth in New Zealand, with GDP contracting by 0.1% in Q4 2024, suggests a recession. Despite this, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has not ...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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