Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Official forecasts for the NFP
2019-11-11 • Updated
As you may probably know, the level of non-farm employment change or non-farm payrolls (NFP) will be released today at 15:30 MT time. It is the leading indicator of consumer spending, that is why it can influence the USD significantly.
The NFP in August reached 201,000 payrolls.
Let’s check what major banks predict about the September digits:
Goldman Sachs – 175,000.
“Strong September employment report, decline in the unemployment rate, firm average hourly earnings, despite the hurricane Florence”
Morgan Stanley – 178,000.
“Growth of the employment level, the lowest levels of initial jobless claims, limited hurricane Florence impact”
Amherst Pierpont – 190,000.
“A slight decline due to the hurricane Florence influence”
Wells Fargo – 210,000.
“Repeat of the August levels, record low levels of initial jobless claims, decline in unemployment rate to 3.8%”
If actual figures are greater than the forecasts, the USD will increase.
Up to now EUR/USD is falling towards the support at 1.1413. If NFP beats the forecasts, the pair will fall below this level. Otherwise, it will go above the resistance at 1.1507.
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Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
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