Forecast for June 28

The US dollar index managed to recover and reach the psychological level at $95. Although the core durable goods orders data was weaker than the forecast one, durable goods orders data showed a less decline. As a result, mixed data didn’t let the index fall further. On Thursday, traders will look at final GDP, unemployment claims data (15:30 MT time) and a speech of the Federal Open Market Committee’s member (19:00 MT time). The forecast isn’t encouraging as the GDP is anticipated to stay at the same level, and the number of the unemployment claims is supposed to rise. If the actual data are more positive than the forecast ones, the index will be able to move further. The next resistance will be at $95.30. Otherwise, the index will return to $94.50.

The euro can’t recover after a significant fall on June 14. Up to now, the pair has broken the support at 1.1615. On H4, you can recognize the “Head and shoulders” pattern. The pair has already passed the way down it was anticipated to pass, so the further direction will depend on the economic data. If actual German prelim CPI (all day) and Spanish flash CPI (10:00 MT time) data are greater than the forecast ones, the pair will turn around and will rise above 1.1615. Otherwise, the support at 1.1590 will be broken. And the further fall to 1.1550 will be anticipated.

Moreover, on Thursday, the EU Economic Summit will start. Traders will get clues on the European economic conditions.

It will be an important day for the New Zealand dollar. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release the interest rate (00:00 MT time). Although the rate hike isn’t anticipated, the Central Bank may give clues on the future monetary policy. If there are hawkish comments on it, the NZD will be able to recover. Up to now, NZD/USD has been moving below the support at 0.6840. If the comments are positive, NZD/USD will appear above 0.6840. Otherwise, the fall to 0.6770 is anticipated.

On Wednesday, the oil market significantly rose as the crude oil inventories data showed a great decline (-9.9M actual vs -2.4M forecast). As a result, WTI has appeared near the resistance at $73.15. If there is more positive news on the oil market, WTI will be able to move further to $77. Otherwise, the support will lie at 71.15.

Brent has been rising as well. The oil benchmark reached the resistance at $78. Some encouraging news on Thursday will support the further rise to $80. Otherwise, Brent will return to $76.80.

usd

eur

nzd - new zealand dollar

oil

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