The main event of Thursday is the ECB meeting. The central bank will release its interest rate decision at 14:45 MT time. But traders will pay a higher attention to the press conference that will start at 15:30 MT time. The euro has significantly declined against the US dollar, and the meeting will lead to a spike of volatility in markets. Traders will look at the President’s economic outlook. There are some negative factors as the slowing economic growth, trade tensions and weaker March inflation that can affect the ECB’s mood. And of course, everyone will expect hints on the future monetary policy. If there are no such hints, it will be bad for the euro.
As for technical analysis, the single currency is weak ahead of the ECB’s meeting. EUR/USD pair reached February lows in the area of 1.2180. If the pair closes the day below 100-day MA at 1.2210, bears will prevail. The MA will become a resistance in this case. If the ECB sounds dovish, the euro will continue its downward movement to the weekly pivot level at 1.2056.
There are no important events for other currency pairs, so their movements are stable.
Let’s look at USD/JPY. The pair is continuing its upward movement to new highs. If bulls are able to pull it above the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud at 109.30, the next aim is 50 Fibonacci retracement at 109.70. If USD/JPY is not able to break through the upper boundary, there is a possibility of the rebound to 38.2 Fibonacci retracement.
Thank you for your attention!
