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June 27, 2025

Currencies

AUDUSD Outlook: Fed Bets Lift Aussie to YTD Highs

Fundamental Analysis

The US dollar is losing ground as markets price in deeper Fed rate-cut odds and the prospect of a more dovish chair replacing Powell, pushing the DXY to 3½-year lows and propelling AUD/USD to YTD highs near 0.6564 after seven straight gains. The Aussie’s rally is further underpinned by a global risk-on tone and perceived progress on trade deals, favouring commodity FX such as AUD.
In Australia, AUD strength rests on a global easing cycle where investors expect looser Fed policy, while May’s drop in China’s industrial profits reinforces bets that the RBA will stay less aggressive into year-end—keeping AUD/USD tilted bullish in the near term.

Complementary Ideas
• Keep an eye on today’s US PCE print; a soft read could firm Fed-cut wagers and add AUD tailwinds.
• Any confirmed breakthrough in US-China trade talks would extend AUD’s risk-asset bid.

Technical Analysis (AUDUSD | H3)

AUDUSD_ANALISIS_H4.jpg
Supply zones: 0.6553
Demand zones: 0.6532 | 0.6495

Trend stays bullish above the last H4 support at 0.6484. A POC formed at 0.6553; a break below yesterday’s buy-POC at 0.6532 could open intraday shorts to 0.6519 and the 0.65 demand cluster (psychological level + bearish daily range + Wed’s uncovered POC at 0.6495), where a fresh rally toward 0.66–0.6650 is favoured.
Conversely, an early bounce from 0.6532 and a clean break of 0.6553 would signal buyer dominance, clearing the path above 0.6564 toward 0.66–0.6650.

Technical Summary
• Bullish: Longs above 0.6564 → 0.66 / 0.6650.
• Bearish: Shorts below 0.6530 → 0.6519 / 0.65 to reload longs.

ERP (Exhaustion/Reversal Pattern): Wait for M5 confirmation before entries.
Uncovered POC: highest-volume level acting as resistance (sell) or support (buy) depending on prior move.

Trading foreign currencies on margin involves significant risks and may not be suitable for everyone, as high leverage can increase both potential gains and losses. Before entering the foreign exchange market, it is essential to evaluate your investment goals, personal experience, and risk tolerance.

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Tibisay Ramos

Author: Tibisay Ramos

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