1. BoJ Policy & Yen Bias
- Bank of Japan held rates steady at 0.5% and slowed its JGB tapering, reflecting a gradual, risk-aware normalization path.
- This cautious stance tempers yen weakness, mainly as global uncertainty (e.g., Fed, geopolitics) drives safe-haven demand.
- Technically, this reinforces strong resistance near 196.00–196.38.
🔹 Takeaway: The yen's downside is limited unless the BoJ surprises hawkishly or global risk sentiment surges.
2. BoE Stance & Pound Performance
- The Bank of England is expected to keep rates on hold at 4.25% next week.
- Market pricing suggests rate cuts in late 2025, but timing is fluid given mixed UK data:
- Strong Q1 GDP (+0.7%)
- Rising unemployment (4.6%) and wage deceleration
- Sterling has struggled to break above May highs near 196.45, reflecting uncertainty over BoE policy direction.
🔹 Takeaway: The pound is firm but lacks momentum without clear BoE signals or fresh economic upside.
3. Technical Dynamics & Risk Flows
- Price Action:
- Trading inside a short-term bullish channel
- Range: 195.00–196.38
- Key Levels:
- Upside breakout: A clear move above 196.38 opens the path to 199.80
- Downside risk: A break below 191.86 would mark a deeper corrective leg
- Risk Sentiment:
- Middle East tensions support yen via safe-haven flows
- Equities and global risk appetite could skew this short-term
GBPJPY – W1 Timeframe
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The price action on the weekly timeframe chart of GBPJPY shows a bearish double break of structure. The price has reached the rally-base-drop supply zone and should slip lower after a rejection from the confluence of the resistance trendline and the supply zone.
Analyst's Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target- 191.108
Invalidation- 198.986
CONCLUSION
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