XRPUSD has slipped roughly 4–5% this week, trading around $2.90–$2.95, as profit-taking and cooling momentum weigh on price action after a strong summer rally. The digital asset has broken below the key psychological support at $3.00, with immediate resistance between $3.08–$3.10. While near-term sentiment remains cautious, machine-learning models continue to flag upside potential toward $3.12. Elliott Wave projections suggest that the current consolidation may be part of a broader bullish impulse aiming for the $3.60–$3.65 zone.
The broader narrative remains constructive. XRP’s ~420% year-to-date gain has been driven by growing institutional use cases, tokenization momentum, and a breakthrough in regulatory clarity, especially following the SEC case dismissal and the asset’s inclusion in the US strategic crypto reserve. These structural developments have underpinned increased confidence among long-term holders and hedge funds positioning for further gains.
1. Demand Revival Faces Inventory Headwinds
Natural gas markets are caught between tightening supply and seasonal oversupply. Sweltering summer temperatures and elevated LNG exports drive strong demand, while subpar US storage levels set the stage for a potential winter surge. Analysts warn that front-month prices could top $5/ 5/MMBtu later this year, marking the most substantial rally since 2022.
2. Seasonal Injection Cycle Cools Short-Term Hype
Despite bullish fundamentals, the market faces near-term pressure. July storage injections are on pace to lift inventories above the five-year average, limiting price momentum. Spot prices remain trapped in a $2.50–$3.20 fair-value range.
3. Technical Momentum Cools, but Charts Suggest Rebound Potential
XRP has dropped roughly 4–5% this week, retreating to the $2.90–$2.95 zone as traders lock in profits after its sharp summer rally. The break below psychological support at $3.00 has put pressure on bullish sentiment, with resistance now capping gains at $3.08–$3.10. Still, machine-learning models and Elliott Wave analysis continue to forecast an eventual bullish impulse toward $3.65, despite short-term consolidation signals.
4. Institutional Demand and Legal Clarity Underpin Long-Term Bull Case
XRP’s ~420% YTD performance is rooted in growing institutional demand, tokenization initiatives, and increasing legal certainty. The SEC’s dismissal of its case against Ripple and XRP’s inclusion in the US strategic crypto reserve have significantly boosted its legitimacy and investor confidence, potentially setting the stage for another leg higher.
Summary
XRPUSD is in a consolidation phase near $2.90, but structural support from institutional flows and regulatory clarity could reignite bullish momentum. A move above $3.10 opens upside toward $3.60–$3.65, while failure to hold support risks a retest of $2.80–$2.85. Traders should watch for breakout confirmations and regulatory news catalysts.
XRPUSD H3 Timeframe
.png)
On this XRPUSD 3H chart:
Price is forming a bearish market structure, with consecutive lower highs and lower lows. The chart highlights two clear supply zones where sellers previously stepped in:
- The first supply zone is at ~3.08–3.12 (upper black box), near the convergence of the 200 EMA (dark green) and an internal trendline retest (red).
- The second, more recent supply zone lies at ~3.03–3.05, just beneath the 200 EMA and marked by the most recent lower high.
The moving averages are in bearish alignment:
- 200 EMA above
- 50 EMA (orange) in the middle
- 20 EMA (red) below — confirming downside pressure.
The latest price action shows a retest of this lower supply, with rejection wicks forming, suggesting sellers are defending that zone.
Horizontal black arrows show prior support turned resistance (flip zones), and the black downward arrow implies a potential move lower if this rejection confirms.
Direction- Bullish
Target- 3.266
Invalidation- 2.938
CONCLUSION
You can access more trade ideas and prompt market updates on the Telegram channel.
