2021-09-03 • Updated
Last Friday’s NFP was disappointing. The nonfarm payrolls missed estimates with +235K versus +720K expected. At the same time, the average hourly earnings advanced by 0.6% (vs. the forecast of 0.3%), and the unemployment rate came out in line with the forecast of 5.2%. The reaction of the markets was astonishing. Will it last longer? Let's find out the main trade opportunities for the upcoming week.
This week, the main focus will be on the commodity-linked and risky currencies, such as the AUD and the CAD. Traders of these currencies await the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday and the Interest Rate Decision of the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. If the banks hint at stimulus reduction, the local currencies will rise. AUD/USD surged above 0.7450 last week. If the bullish momentum continues, the next targets will lie at 0.7500 and 0.7540. On the downside, support levels lie at 0.7330 and 0.7270. For USD/CAD, the slide to 1.2430 will increase the chances of further falls to 1.2370. As for the euro, it can move on the ECB statement on Thursday. In case of the ECB’s hawkishness, the 1.1900 level will be easily broken.
The indices started last week on an extremely bullish note but cooled down. However, Friday's NFP boosted investor's confidence in further Fed's loose policy and pushed stocks higher. NASDAQ traded right below the 15 700 level, while S&P500 reached a beautiful mark of 4545. A big move happened on the chart of the Japanese index. In just three days it spiked towards June's high of 29 450. If the risk-on sentiment prevails, the resistance of 30 000 will be broken. On the downside, the support at 28 500 is the closest one.
Gold was above the resistance zone at 1820 in the post-NFP session, targeting the next obstacle at 1835. Keep in mind that the change in the USD strength may pull the metal lower to the support of 1790. As for oil prices, they tested higher levels on the USD weakness with WTI near 70 and Brent at 73.40. The next level for buyers of WTI is located at 72.20, while bulls of Brent will appreciate the spike to 75.30. The support levels for WTI and Brent lie at 67.70 and 71, respectively.
The following information is not investment advice. Remember that trading is risky. Manage your funds carefully and remember that you can use Take Profit and Stop Loss orders to maximize your gains and limit your losses.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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